TEHRAN – The war between Iran and Israel appeared to grind to a halt on Tuesday, after a dizzying 12 days in which the world watched President Donald Trump demand the evacuation of Tehran's 10 million residents, threaten to assassinate Iran's Leader, advocate for "regime change," launch strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, and then claim he harbored no beef with the Iranian government and even wish for God to "bless Iran."

Iran and Israel haven't signed a ceasefire deal, but have only agreed to halt fighting, according to Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi. He stated on X that Iran will hold back from striking Israel as long as the regime refrains from further aggression. 

This war brought the region to the edge of a full-scale conflict, especially after American forces directly joined the fight and faced retaliatory strikes from Iran. Regional leaders watched with anxiety, fearing that the flames ignited by Trump would engulf them as well. For now, it seems the region might be safe. However, given the well-documented history of Israel and Washington breaking their word and even violating official ceasefire agreements, the threat of renewed conflict remains a very real possibility for every country in West Asia.

Meanwhile, Western media outlets have been working overtime to paint Iran as defeated, censor the grim reality unfolding in Israel, and conveniently ignore the elephant in the room: Israel and the U.S. not only failed to achieve their objectives, but faced unexpected and unprecedented consequences.

Below, we examine some key aspects of this conflict.

How did the war break out?

The war ignited in the early hours of June 13 when Israel, with U.S. backing, initiated bombings of residential buildings in Tehran, nuclear facilities in Natanz and Esfahan, and military sites throughout Iran. The regime also assassinated several of Iran's top military generals and nuclear scientists on that day.

These attacks caught Iranians off guard, as they were preparing to attend a sixth round of nuclear negotiations with the United States in a matter of days.

Iran launched its retaliatory strikes on the night of June 13, carrying out 22 waves of missile and drone attacks against the occupied territories. The last round was fired just minutes before the fighting was supposed to cease on June 24.

Initially, American officials claimed they had no involvement in the Israeli assaults, but on June 22, they directly intervened by striking nuclear sites in Natanz, Esfahan, and Fordow.

Why did Israel and the U.S. attack Iran?

Israeli and American leaders claimed the attacks were aimed at preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. However, this justification is undermined by the Trump administration's own intelligence findings, which stated just weeks ago that Iran was not close to acquiring a nuclear bomb, nor did it appear to have the intention of doing so. The IAEA also announced, albeit after the attacks began, that it had never found any evidence suggesting Iran was moving towards the militarization of its nuclear program.

Evidence suggests that the primary goal of Israel and Washington in attacking Iran was "regime change." They likely assumed that the attacks would prompt the Iranian population, already struggling with economic and societal challenges, to rise up against the government and overthrow the Islamic Republic.

Americans and Israelis even presented the deposed Shah's son as an alternative, staging a press conference for him with international media to unveil his "day after" plans.

It was also believed that eliminating a generation of Iranian generals would significantly cripple any Iranian response, and demoralize remaining military officials, especially after at least 30 of them were contacted and threatened on June 13, with audio files released by Western media showing them being told to abandon their posts or risk their families' lives.

What did the U.S. and Israel gain?

The objectives the two had set for themselves were clearly not met.

Iran managed to relocate its enriched uranium stored at Fordow to a secure location before the American strike. Satellite imagery, expert analysis, and statements from Iranian authorities indicate that the vast majority of Iran's underground facilities remain intact, although some surface damage was sustained. If Iran decides to pursue nuclear weapons in the future, it would almost certainly be a direct result of the Israeli-American war imposed upon it while diplomatic efforts were underway.

Furthermore, Iranians from all walks of life rallied behind Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei and became even more united, as has historically been the case during times of foreign aggression.

Therefore, it is fair to say that the lives taken (at least 606) and the destruction inflicted in Iran were the only achievements of the U.S. and Israel in this war.

What did the U.S. and Israel lose?

The consequences that Americans and Israelis would face for attacking Iran were also severely underestimated.

For 12 days, Iranian missiles and drones rained down on the occupied territories without pause, leaving at least one-third of Tel Aviv in ruins. Similar scenes were witnessed in other major cities like Haifa and Be'er Sheva, and critical military and intelligence sites were destroyed by Iranian weapons.

The aftermath of the war spurred a mass exodus of Israelis, even as citizens were officially barred from leaving the occupied territories. People resorted to paying smugglers to reach Cyprus, and crossed into the Sinai Peninsula to reach Europe through Egypt. This war marked the first time that settlers had experienced widespread death and destruction, and it is expected to further fuel emigration from the "promised Jewish land."

According to Hebrew media reports, the financial losses incurred by Israel in less than two weeks of war with Iran equaled the losses sustained during 20 months of conflict in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.

As for the United States, the world is now far less likely to trust anything that comes out of Trump's mouth or any diplomatic process he engages in, considering he attacked Iran while the two were engaged in talks aimed at averting war. Trump also presided over the second attack on a U.S. base since taking office – both carried out by Iran. This time, Iran struck the largest and most significant American base in West Asia, located in Qatar. (In 2020, it attacked the Al Asad base in Iraq after Trump's assassination of a top Iranian General in Baghdad.)

Trump says Iran fired 14 missiles at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, 13 of which were intercepted. One, he said, was allowed to descend in an open area. Iran has not commented on the impact of the attack but footage captured by one Qatari resident from a distance shows multiple Iranian projectiles hit the ground. 

Furthermore, Trump saw his popularity plummet during the conflict, with American polls showing his approval rating sinking to a low of 41%. It is worth noting that a significant portion of Trump's base voted for him based on his promises to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

What did Iran lose and gain?

Iran mourns the loss of some of its top military generals, nuclear scientists, as well as dozens of civilians. However, given Iran's vast size, the destruction on the ground pales in comparison to the devastation now seen in Israel.

Experts argue that this war solidified Iran's power and demonstrated the resilience of the Islamic Republic to the world. Despite fighting against two nuclear-armed adversaries, Iran managed to prevent any major domestic crisis or disruption.

Moreover, Iranians are now more likely to reach a decisive consensus on the future of their nuclear program, an issue that previously lacked unanimous political agreement.

What happens now?

Many believe that the current state of peace is fragile and highly susceptible to collapse. The Israeli regime has a history of calling for ceasefires only to resume fighting after recovering from losses. While the war Israel fought with Iran had consequences unlike any before, Iranian officials have stated that they remain vigilant, prepared to resume fighting at any moment, and possess cards they did not play during the past 12 days.